punt (intransitive verb)

1. Games To lay a bet against the bank, as in roulette.
2. Chiefly British Slang To gamble.
I’ve read a lot of posts recently speculating what will sell well and what people are stockpiling for Mists. To date, I’ve not really been stock piling anything much;
  • Alicite Pendants – I have maybe 20 of these, figuring that people are going to want the iLevel boost to help get their Monks & Pandas in to Cataclysm instances. My confidence isn’t that high, hence the low volume.
  • Greater Celestial Essences & Hypnotic Dust – These are more of a long-term investment. Once people stopped running LK content supplies of Greater Cosmic Essence and Infinite Dust started to dry up and the price went through the roof. I’m counting on the same thing happening again so I’m sitting on all the essences and dusts I’m producing from the Elementium Shuffle.
  • Gold – Other than the above, I’ve been keeping most of my capital liquid. My thought process here is that I want to get my foot in the door of Jewelcrafting early on in Mists and will need the finances in place to support this.

 

Inscription

Back when I was levelling my Warlock I was making (what I then considered) reasonable gold selling glyphs. I’ve been out of the market for quite some time now, probably getting on for 2 years, however I have the benefit that she knows every glyph currently available in the game.

Mists brings both a new race and a new class for people to try out and all those new characters are going to need glyphs. Add to this the fact that there are big changes to glyphs due to appear right before the expansion hits and I can foresee that now might be the time to make my re-entry to the scene.

I did a bit of research (Google) and figured that what I needed was a list of all the glyphs along with their materials. There’s a downloadable csv file on El’s Professions but it’s not 100% up to date so I set about building my own spreadsheet. What I have ended up with is an Excel workbook with each class on it’s own tab (including Monks) showing me: The name of each glyph, the type of ink it uses and the type of parchment required. I’ve then got an extra tab which counts up all the glyphs requiring each ink. Here’s some stats for those interested in such things:

  • Total glyphs: 404 (this includes new glyphs being added in Mists, it’s currently around 370 on live)
  • Unique inks used for glyphs: 9
  • Average number of glyphs per ink: ~45
  • Most commonly required ink: Ink of the Sea (127 glyphs)
  • Least commonly required ink: Blackfallow Ink (1 glyph)
My initial goal was to craft 10 of each glyph with spare mats left over. With this in mind, this was my shopping list:
Ink Used For To Craft 10 Rounded
 Midnight Ink  44  1,320  2,000
 Lion’s Ink  49  1,470  2,000
 Jadefire Ink  36  1,080  1,500
 Celestial Ink  23  690  1,000
 Shimmering Ink  21  630  1,000
 Ethereal Ink  70  2,100  2,500
 Ink of the Sea  127  3,810  4,500
 Blackfallow Ink  1  30  100

Until the Mists pre-patch you can trade Blackfallow Ink for any of the others on this list. Current market trends show that Cataclysm herbs are the best choice with Whiptail & Twilight Jasmine offering the best chance of yielding Ashen Pigment (2-4 pigments on average).

As I’m writing this post I’ve just realised that I made a rather critical error in my calculations yesterday… Here’s what I’d based my calculations on:
  • ~370 glyphs
  • 10 crafts per glyph
  • 3,700 total glyphs
  • 3 inks per glyph
  • 11,100 total inks
  • 2 pigment per ink
  • 22,200 total pigments
  • 2-4 pigments (assume an average of 3) per herb
  • 7,400 total herbs
  • 20 herbs per stack
  • 370 stacks – Rounded up to 500 stacks to be safe

See where I went wrong? It should be 2-4 pigments per milling (of 5 herbs) not per herb, so I’m quite a ways out when I get to the end. Here’s how my calculations should have ended:

  • 2-4 pigments (assume an average of 3) per milling
  • 7400 millings
  • 5 herbs per milling
  • 37,000 herbs
  • 20 herbs per stack
  • 1,850 stacks – Rounded up to 2,000 stacks to be safe

Last night I bought 10k Whiptail (500 stacks) for a combined cost of ~10k gold. To achieve my goal I now realise that I’m going to need to buy another 30k herbs (1500 stacks) resulting in my little venture costing me closer to 40k gold than the 10k I originally anticipated. Not a big deal I can absorb the extra I’m just a little annoyed with myself for dropping the ball like that.

Bottom Line

Since I’ve already bought 1/4 of the raw materials I need to do this I figure I might as well go for broke and buy the rest. Assuming that prices remain around the 20g/stack mark (the general trend for raw materials is downwards at the moment), this will bring my total investment to ~40k gold.

Taking current average glyph prices in to consideration and assuming that there will be at least a small spike in demand as Mists releases I’m going to base my estimated return on a sell price of 25g per glyph.

  • Assumed sale price: 25g per glyph
  • Estimated sales based on materials available: 4,000 units
  • Gross profit: 100,000g (raw takings)
  • Net profit: 60,000g (gross profit – costs)
  • Return of Investment: 150% (net profit / costs * 100)

Best case, if this turns in to “Glyphmas 2” as some bloggers are predicting prices *could* spike as high as 100g per glyph (possibly even more given that some glyphs already sell for ~400g each). If this happens, my profit will rocket up to and it’s entirely possible I could be looking at upwards of 400,000g gross profit (a staggering 900% RoI).

I guess time will tell if this was a good idea or not!